Does the Moon move Bitcoin?
A data experiment testing the old trader's tale: full moon = local top, new moon = local bottom. It measures the real lag between each phase and the price turning point — then predicts the next ones.
Launch the live tool → How it worksThe idea in one minute
Lunar cycles have been folk-linked to markets for decades. Rather than take it on faith, this tool pulls Bitcoin's full price history, finds every genuine swing top and bottom, and lines them up against every full and new moon since 2014 to see whether the pattern actually holds — and by how many days it's off.
Full moon → top?
Each full moon is matched to the nearest real swing high in BTC, recording whether the top came before or after — and by how many days.
New moon → bottom?
Each new moon is matched to the nearest swing low, so we can see if bottoms really cluster around the dark of the moon.
Predict the next
The average lag is projected onto upcoming moons to forecast the next likely top and bottom, with an uncertainty window.
What the data actually shows
On the most selective settings (one major swing per lunar cycle, whole history):
A small positive lag with a large spread means the effect is weak and not tradable on its own. The tool lets you tighten or loosen the definition of a "top" and watch how robust the pattern is.
Learn more
Moon phases explained
The 29.5-day lunar cycle, what full and new moons are, and why traders watch them.
📈Bitcoin price history
Halving cycles, volatility, and the boom-bust rhythm that makes BTC a natural test case.
🔬The methodology
Swing-pivot detection, signed-lag statistics, and how the predictions are built.
Frequently asked questions
Do full moons cause Bitcoin tops?
There's no established causal link between lunar phases and markets. This project treats it as a testable pattern: it detects real swing highs and measures their distance from the nearest full moon. On strict settings the average top lands a few days after the full moon — but with a wide spread, so it's a weak tendency, not a rule.
How does it predict future tops and bottoms?
It averages the signed lag between past full moons and tops (and new moons and bottoms), then projects that lag onto upcoming moon dates, drawing a predicted date with a ±1 standard-deviation window.
Where does the price and moon data come from?
Bitcoin daily prices come from Yahoo Finance; precise full/new moon timestamps are computed astronomically with the ephem library — no hand-entered dates.
Is this financial advice?
No. It's an educational, exploratory tool. Lunar phases have no proven effect on asset prices and nothing here should drive investment decisions.
Try it yourself
Adjust the swing sensitivity, matching window and horizon — and watch the pattern hold or dissolve.
Launch the live tool →