Bitcoin price history
Why Bitcoin, of all assets, is the natural test case for a cycle theory: its price moves in dramatic, repeating waves — and every wave is packed with the local tops and bottoms this project tries to time.
The engine: the four-year halving
Roughly every four years (every 210,000 blocks), the reward miners receive for adding a block is cut in half. This halving steadily throttles new supply, and historically each one has preceded a major bull market:
| Halving | Block reward | What followed |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2012 | 50 → 25 BTC | 2013 run to ~$1,100 |
| Jul 2016 | 25 → 12.5 BTC | 2017 run to ~$19,700 |
| May 2020 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC | 2021 run to ~$69,000 |
| Apr 2024 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC | 2024–25 cycle to new highs |
The major cycles at a glance
2013 — the first public bubble
Bitcoin ran from a few dollars to over $1,000, then collapsed ~85% into a long 2014–15 bear market. This is where the tool's data begins.
2017 — the ICO mania
A near-parabolic rise to almost $20,000 by December 2017, followed by an ~84% drawdown through 2018.
2021 — the double top
A pandemic-era surge to ~$64k in April, a sharp correction, then a second peak near $69k in November 2021 — an unusually clean example of the swing tops the tool detects — before a brutal 2022 bear market to ~$16k.
2024–25 — new highs
Spot ETFs and the April 2024 halving drove Bitcoin to fresh record highs, resetting the cycle again.
Volatility is the point
BTC routinely posts daily moves several times larger than major stock indices. High volatility means sharp, identifiable tops and bottoms — exactly what you need to ask "did this one land near a full or new moon?" It also means noise, which is why the tool reports an average lag and its spread, never just a single tidy number.
Past cycles are not a promise of future ones. Halving-cycle and lunar patterns alike are observations, not guarantees — this is not financial advice.